# We adapt, we always have, and we'll adapt to AI too (slim)

> Vlad Cealicu on AI 2040, the AI Futures Project's plan to slow the race to superintelligence until 2040. Change is too fast right now, but the world wars and shipping containers changed everything just as quickly, and AI might give us that pace without the cost.

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By Vlad Cealicu, 21 October 2026. 1,199 words, about 5 min to read.

Humanity is very good at adapting.

I'm writing this because I read AI 2040, the plan the AI Futures Project (the group behind AI 2027) published as their Plan A [[2]](#ref-2), and I don't think it will work.

## What AI 2040 says

Their starting point is that the AI companies are racing to build AIs smarter than humans in every way, and that the race ends either in extinction or with a tiny group of people in control of everything [[2]](#ref-2).

The reason for all the slowing down is speed.

## We've had change this fast before

I'll concede it first.

When the First World War started in August 1914, less than eleven years after the Wright brothers first flew, the Royal Flying Corps had around 100 aircraft.

The cost was horrific.

Shipping is the peacetime version, and it happened inside one working lifetime.

It wasn't easy.

## Most of the world isn't there yet

It feels incredibly fast for coding, but I'm not sure about the other parts of language.

Per cent, Microsoft's estimates via Our World in Data

| Country | Per cent |
| --- | --- |
| United Kingdom | 42 |
| United States | 31 |
| Germany | 31 |
| World | 18 |
| India | 18 |
| Romania | 18 |
| Nigeria | 10 |
| Ethiopia | 8 |

Each series has a zero-based scale.

And 2.2 billion people were still offline in 2025, with 94% of people in high-income countries online against 23% in low-income ones [[12]](#ref-12).

## It doesn't have to be a tiny group

I don't think a tiny group of people controlling everything is where we have to end up.

Plan A wants a lot of the same openness, with almost all AI research made public and dozens of companies around the world allowed to catch up [[2]](#ref-2), but it gets there through a deal between two governments.

## Where I land

It won't be easy, and the docks and the wars weren't either.

Adapting and learning, alongside imagination, is what makes us human.

---

More in [Opinion](https://www.anchorterminal.com/blog/opinion/index.md) · Older opinion [Agents need payment channels, and we've built them three times already](https://www.anchorterminal.com/blog/agents-need-payment-channels.md) · Newer opinion [MCP is GraphQL all over again](https://www.anchorterminal.com/blog/mcp-is-graphql-all-over-again.md)

- Older: [Agents need payment channels, and we've built them three times already](https://www.anchorterminal.com/blog/agents-need-payment-channels.md)
- Newer: [MCP is GraphQL all over again](https://www.anchorterminal.com/blog/mcp-is-graphql-all-over-again.md)
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## References

Read on 20 and 21 October 2026.

[1] Ipsos MORI for The Economist, fieldwork 2 and 3 July 2021, 1,025 adults in Great Britain aged 16 to 75, as reported by DJ Mag on 14 July 2021. Source for 26% wanting nightclubs to stay closed permanently and 19% wanting a permanent 10pm curfew.

[2] Thomas Larsen, Romeo Dean, Brendan Halstead, Eli Lifland, Ryan Greenblatt and Daniel Kokotajlo, AI 2040: Plan A, AI Futures Project, 2026, the full edition as a PDF.

[3] Historic England, 100 years of the Royal Air Force, Historic England Blog, 28 March 2018. Source for the Royal Flying Corps having around 100 aircraft in August 1914, and the RAF having more than 22,000 aircraft in November 1918. https://heritagecalling.com/2018/03/28/100-years-of-the-royal-air-force/

[4] USDA Agricultural Research Service, The Rescue of Penicillin, ARS timeline.

[5] Richard Conniff, How World War II put penicillin into every pharmacy, National Geographic, August 2020 issue, published 14 July 2020. Source for 2.3 million doses of penicillin made in preparation for the D-Day landings.

[6] Wikipedia, World War I casualties.

[7] Wikipedia, World War II casualties.

[8] Jordan Fraade, Next City, 26 May 2015, There's Money Hiding in New York City's Waterfronts.

[9] Human Progress, Heroes of Progress, Part 17, Malcom McLean.

[10] Wikipedia, Triple E-class container ship.

[11] Our World in Data, Estimated share of working-age adults who use generative AI, from Microsoft's AI Diffusion Report (modelled estimates from usage of 19 AI tools, ages 15 to 64), retrieved 21 October 2026. Source for 17.8% worldwide in January to March 2026 and the country figures (United Kingdom 42.2%, United States 31.3%, Germany 31.1%, India 17.6%, Romania 17.5%, Nigeria 10.1%, Ethiopia 7.6%).

[12] ITU, Facts and Figures 2025, press release of 17 November 2025. Source for 2.2 billion people offline in 2025, and 94% internet use in high-income countries against 23% in low-income countries.

[13] CERN, The birth of the Web.